Making the Top 4

• You don't need to win; you need to place. Finishing 4th is as good as 1st for advancing. The bar to reach the general is "be more popular than the 5th candidate," not "beat everyone."
• Party label doesn't gate the ballot. Four Republicans could advance; so could two Democrats. The field is sorted purely by votes.
• A thin field makes the 4th slot cheap. If only a handful of serious candidates run, the 4th slot can be won with a tiny share (in the 2024 U.S. House primary it took just 0.6%). If many credible candidates split the vote, the 4th slot requires a meaningful share and the 4th-vs-5th margin gets razor-thin (in the 2022 Governor primary the 4th slot needed 6.6%, with 5th place only 2.7 points back).
• The real fight is usually for the top 2–3. Those are the candidates with a genuine path to winning the RCV general. Slots 3 and 4 often go to candidates who advance but can't ultimately win.

The only prior Alaska gubernatorial race run under Top-4, and the best available read on how a 2026 governor's primary sorts out. All certified, statewide. Shaded rows advanced to the general.

Source: AK Division of Elections, 22PRIM Election Summary Report.

Two things to carry into 2026:

• 2022 had an incumbent anchoring the top. Dunleavy took 40% and locked slot 1. 2026 is open, so that 40% block fragments, the top 4 will likely be tighter, and the 4th-slot threshold could climb.
• The cut was real, not a formality. The 4th slot was won at 6.6%, and the 5th-place finisher was within ~2.7 points. In a deep gubernatorial field, missing the top 4 is a genuine risk, unlike thin down-ballot races where almost everyone advances.

What's been publicly released so far. The field is sparse 15 months out, and most of it is internal/sponsored polling, so read the label on each: only Alaska Survey Research is independent. Undecided dwarfs every named candidate, which is exactly the deep, bunched field the Top-4 cut punishes.

From the Alaska voter file (a public record), weighted by each voter's likely-primary-voter score. Registration is one thing; the slice that actually turns out in August is smaller and more partisan.

The puzzle: recent polling has the three Democrats summing to roughly a third of the vote, yet registered Democrats are only 12% of the rolls. How?

• The hard-D base is bigger than registration. Democrats turn out at far higher rates than the PFD-auto-registered "U" pile, so they're 17% of the expected primary electorate, not 12%.
• The open primary hands everyone the same ballot. Undeclared + Nonpartisan voters are 48% of the expected electorate and split between D and R candidates. If that swing breaks evenly, the D lane's ceiling is about 41%, so ~36% for Democratic candidates sits below it.
• 2022 confirms it. Gara (D, 23%) + Walker (independent, 23%) made a ~46% non-Republican lane in the last Top-4 Governor primary. 2026's ~36% pure-Democrat (no Walker-style independent) is consistent, even conservative.
• Republicans split 8 ways; Democrats 3. With a third undecided, the fragmented R field parks R-leaners in "undecided" while D-leaners have consolidated onto a few known names.

So ~36% for Democratic candidates does not mean 36% of voters are Democrats: it's the ~17% hard-D base plus roughly 40% of the U/N swing, in a fragmented-Republican, high-undecided field. Two of three current polls are internal, and "Begich" carries heavy dynasty name-ID, so expect the D share to compress as the field winnows.

Turnout tiers: the "high" tier (consistent past primary voters) is small but near-certain to vote; "low" is the large, mostly-passive pile that rarely shows for an August primary.